The evolution and heterogeneity of credit procyclicality in Central and Eastern Europe

This article presents empirical estimates of bank credit procyclicality for a sample of 11 Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) for the period 2000Q1–2016Q4. In the first step, we estimate a traditional?type panel vector autoregressive (VAR) model and analyse the evolution of credit procyclicality in the CEECs by comparing the impulse response functions for different business cycle periods. The results confirm the existence of credit procyclicality in the CEECs and show that procyclicality is higher during boom periods. Furthermore, we observe the heterogeneity of credit procyclicality in the different countries in our sample. To explain the cross?country heterogeneity in credit procyclicality we construct an interacted panel VAR model and analyse whether bank?level competition, proxied by the aggregate Lerner index, constitutes a driving force of credit procyclicality. Our findings indicate that bank competition affects credit procyclicality and explains the differences in credit dynamics across the CEECs. Specifically, we show that the reaction of credit to a gross domestic product shock is on average higher in a less competitive banking market.