Dynamic dependence and predictability between volume and return of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs): The roles of market factors and geopolitical risks

We examine the dependence between volume and returns for the NFT market and three sub-markets (Cryptokitties, Cryptopunks, and Decentraland) using both quantile cross-spectral coherency and quantile regression techniques. Results from both techniques show significant evidence of dependence between NFT return and volume. Dependence between volume and return is weakest in the Cryptopunks market. Similarly, quantile regression results show that during extreme market conditions, equity and gold markets uncertainty, business condition and term-spread are important predictors of Cryptokitties returns, while oil, equity and gold markets uncertainty and geopolitical risks significantly predict Cryptopunks and Decentraland markets returns. In all cases, increase in Bitcoin prices reduces NFT market returns.