Arabie saoudite : L'après-pétrole

The gradual dissipation in the Middle East of the post-decolonization nation-state political model in favour of the clericalization of states has fuelled the age-old rivalry between the Sunni and Shiite spheres. In addition to this duel, in the course of the 2000s a third candidate for regional leadership was added: Recep Tayyip's Turkey Erdo?an, which also has a strong multi-secular identity. At the heart of this perpetual struggle for influence, energy resources occupy a strategic place that goes far beyond the regional framework: all the major world powers are directly involved. In this context, Saudi Arabia has opted, since the Quincy Pact in 1945, for a clear and coherent strategic line that has guaranteed both its political stability and its prosperity. However, a number of economic and geopolitical factors, of very diverse origin and age, have called this historic strategy into question. The concordance of these external processes, coupled with the internal forces of modernization, is pushing the Wahhabi kingdom to rethink its strategic vision, both regionally and globally. Having long considered oil as an economic and political weapon, particularly during the oil crises of the 1970s and the regional wars of the 1980s and 1990s, Riyadh now treats it as a resource to be handled with tact. Well aware of the permanent risk of a market reversal, Saudi Arabia now favours fine tuning in an attempt to keep the price of a barrel at a level that suits both customers and exporters - at least those of them who know how to produce at low cost.